Lance behind by a Swiss Second

Team Astana put on an incredible performance today in a team time-trial event, winning Stage 4, and leaving Lance Armstrong just milliseconds behind Fabian Cancellara. More impressive still is the overall standing of Team Astana, with riders in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th place, they OWN the field. Beyond that, they put 2-3 minutes of time on the big threats in the race.

Tomorrow will be hot, windy and flat, and should favor strong team riding, so there's a good chance Lance will take the yellow jersey tomorrow. I want to watch the Verses coverage before commenting further on today's event, but wanted to share this thrilling result.

UPDATE: Not much to watch on a team time-trial, but watching team after team make errors and outright blunders, I feel compelled to say that winning in many, many things is about attending to many, many small details. It is a rare human endeavor where a good field of competition has not already found all of the larger elements of success, leaving only a blizzard of little details left to you to exploit on your way to victory.

Perfectionism, far from being a disease, as our current cultural ebb insists, is the mark of someone who knows their business. It has always been so, and always will be so. Only a fool thinks otherwise. It isn't a substitute for leadership skills, or a great attitude, but it is very necessary to succeed in any contest. One can only hope that Trunk's pilot, surgeon or electrician has taken her advice to heart so we will soon be rid of this cultural siren of mediocrity.

Getting Respect Sir Lance's Way

Sir Lance being congratulated by Mark Cavendish, the stage winner

Watching the Tour de'France coverage with a friend, I excused myself for a minute to use the bathroom. The talking heads on Verses were repeating my comment of a few minutes earlier that the Peleton was getting really stretched out. It seemed to me a large break-away group was over-due to make dash off the front.

I had been able to make out some of the advice Hincapie got from his team car 5 minutes earlier, and then the announcers began wondering aloud why Lance was being such a work-horse for his team, pulling hard at the front of the Peleton. All of that info said one thing - break-away, and in numbers. The ideal situation for a break-away in heavy winds is to sprint through a cross-wind, and then turn as a tight group into a howling headwind. It makes bridging up from the front of the Peleton nearly impossible.

Upon returning a couple of minutes later the announcers were going on about nothing again, when I happened to notice a bend in the road, and an echelon staring to form, with a lot of yellow jerseys in the gutter to the right. As I was yelling at my friend that a break-away was imminent, it happened. As Armstrong said later when interviewed, "it doesn't take a genius", but Contador, brought in by Astana to replace Lance as the team leader, sure didn't see it, and is now 19 seconds behind Armstrong in 4th place. Lance and Popovych and one other Astana rider went with the break-away group, and the rest got left behind for good.

A break-away group of 27, with one entire, in-tact team like Columbia High-Road defending yesterday's win, is not going to be reeled in. That's enough power to drop the entire Peleton, and they did just that. I was grinning from ear to ear. Lance may be old and past his prime, but he's savagely brilliant in managing a race, and when he calls for a favor or starts directing traffic, people listen and obey. He was just absolutely masterful, and got heartfelt hugs from Hincapie, Cavendish and the entire Colombia team at the finish line.

His move from 10th to 3rd place in the race was just brilliant. It was thrilling to see him barking orders and organizing competing interests into a solid and sustained break-away effort. Pop, just like in the Amgen Tour, was right there, helping him in any way he could. I am also very curious to know, and sure it will not be known for some time, if ever, if George Hincapie, an old friend of Lance's, tipped him off to Colombia High-Road's intentions, as it was George who was getting the coaching orders from the THR team car.

I got the definite sense watching the break-away group working together, that many of the riders felt that Lance's removal as the Astana team's leader was insulting and shabby for a man who has dominated the TDF and been a brilliant ambassador for the sport. In cycling, as in many sports, there are many, many unspoken rules and traditions. Coaches and team owners have little influence over these elaborate rituals, and I think Team Astana's owners got a very frank and brutal reputiation today from the moral leadership in the sport of cycling.

I have to say, it was a very satisfying to watch this act of defiance play out, and I salute the senior statesmen of the sport for honoring Lance Armstrong for all he has done for the sport, and the many, many contributions he has made to teams and individual riders alike. I was also very impressed that the very young Cavendish seems to get the unspoken rules of cycling. I commented on his gracious behavior here when commenting on the Amgen Tour of California, and he seems to be maturing into a gracious winner, team player, and keeper of the sport's standards. For this he gets my picture vote for this post, celebrating with Lance after the finish.

If you missed today's stage, I hope you will get a chance to watch it soon. It was a real thing of beauty - and justice. Cycling is truly blessed to have such a magnificent spokesman. God's Speed Lance. On behalf of millions and millions, I wish the very best for you, and will cheer you on to victory with the utmost admiration.

Tour of California - Stage 4 Predictions

The weather today is gorgeous, sunny, light and variable winds and temps into the low 60's. The terrain is very mountainous with flats on both ends. This is a day for climbers, so I expect Mancebo will once again be at the front of the race - provided Rock Racing has a team to put him in a position to win those 5, count'em, 5 KOM climbs on today's stage. That cold, thick air gives you tons of cardio, but that allows you to push your musculature to the limit, and all the riders at the front, and especially the sprinters, really got wrung out yesterday. (you can feel the extra drag on your body in cold air - it's noticeable)

Lance and Levi are tired and beat up, Astana having done most of the work into that brutal wind yesterday, and both men have crashed now. Levi's lead is down to 30-40 seconds on about 5 riders, so I expect Levi to give up the CG lead after making other teams work hard to take it from him, pulling he and Lance along in the process. If Team Astana can hang onto the yellow jersey today it will be a huge coup.

I expect the Columbia High Road team with Hincapie and Cavendish to make a hard run at Astana today. Cavendish needs some redemption today after blowing it at the finish line yesterday, and Hincapie is likely to feel like doing a bit of free-lancing today after his efforts to put Cavendish in a position to win the sprint at the finish were wasted.

While this will be the climbers day tactically, strategically, this is a day where it's all up for grabs. With Astana being so dominant, but now very tired from all the time spent pulling the peleton through the heavy winds yesterday, this is a day when 4-5 teams have chance to put on a strong performance and grab the stage win, and SaxoBank and Columbia have a chance to take the CG lead from Levi and Lance. Props, btw, to Popovych on the Astana team for doing most of the yeoman's work out front yesterday, saving Lance and Levi and all the wheel-sucking wanna-Bs just trying to hang on. I'm sure a lot of riders stumbled into bed and collapsed last night, and the massage tables will all have waiting lines this morning.

For us spectators, this should be a spectacular day of breath-taking vistas, exciting climbs, lots of team tactics and strategy playing out, and the stronger teams trying to reel in the climbers at the end. If Levi still has the legs, he might surprise us all and pull off a stage win, or at least, hang onto the yellow jersey. I'm hoping for a fast race, because I need to get out and have a fast ride of my own before dark, and before the rain sets in again tomorrow. Enjoy!!!

Predictions for Stage 3 of the Tour of California

Here's some tasty footage from VeloNews. I do think they are overestimating the chances of individual riders in Stage 3 though. The climb comes too early to be decisive, and is not nearly the test that last year's Mt Hamilton climb was. I'm betting the best teams will be able to recover on the long flat stretch that makes up the last 50 miles of this stage.

How flat? Some of these areas are flood irrigated, and for that to work there has to be less than 4" of rise in a mile! Winds will play a more important role, and they will be all headwinds tomorrow, although not very strong once over the hump and into the San Joaquin Valley. This stage should favor Astana, which is dominating with riders in 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th places.