2011 Amgen Tour - Stage 7 & Final Results

Teamwork as smooth as cream cheese. Epic!

Chris likes a little stubble to protect his face too

 As expected, the Mt Hamilton stage pretty much determined the pecking order for the rest of the tour. You never know until it's over, crashes and illness can take their toll, and change the outcome in an instant, but in this case, Mt Hamilton ranked the field for Mt Baldy, and the leading teams became even more dominant.

It was good to see Chris so happy, euphoric even. Finally the respect he deserves. I hope he kicks Contador's ass in the TDF this year. I look forward to seeing more of young riders like Matt Busche, from the great state of New Mexico, in future tours. He was amaing at the top of Mt Baldy.

Schleck's performance was a little surprising, but he is on a comeback, and prepping for the TDF, or that's his story, and he's sticking to it. The rider that was unexpectedly impressive for me was Ryder Heshedal. I was also surprised that Garmin did so little of the work at the front in the San Gabriel Mountains, but then RadioShack had the strength and depth to just go hammer it the whole stage, and Garmin just wasn't able to respond.


The oldest guy to finish the race won it. Big props for Chris Horner!!!

 I do hope we will see another Tahoe stage, weather not withstanding, and with the suggested team TT from Carson City, Nevada to Incline Village. Team TTs are getting really rare, and they are one of my favorites. Especially as a first stage, they give the team a great opportunity to work together and gel. It's snowing up in Tahoe as I'm typing this, so an alternate is definitely needed.

While RadioShack pretty much owned the race, I hope the Amgen Tour will continue to give new riders an opening into the sport. Like the US Open, those opportunities are absolutely necessary if the sport is to continue to flourish, and we love watching them grow up right here in the most beautiful country in the world,  the Golden State of California!

2011 Amgen Tour - Stage 6

Congrats to Dave Z on winning the TT, and setting a new course record in the process, although as Leipheimer pointed out, that was almost a certainty when running in May instead of February. I assume he was talking about thinner, warmer air being easier to push aside, but maybe also stripped out of all that extra winter gear.

Really sorry for Levi that he didn't win today, but I have to say, I really hate his form. It seems to work for him, but jeeze it's ugly. I think the high aerobar position is not his favorite, but the only one left to him by the UCI as his preferred one they outlawed. Frankly, the TT is one area I think there are too many rules. Better to let people ride anything they want, any way they want.

I think Chris Horner is saving his legs for the Queen Stage tomorrow - by far the toughest stage in the history of the Amgen Tour, and likely the ruin of many of the smaller teams. As of yesterday's start, only 6 of 144 riders had left the race, although Thor Hushovd abandoned the race yesterday. I don't have a  count, but yesterday's stage, being so long, and with a surprising 12,000+ ft of climbing, probably took it's toll.

By contrast, I expect many, many riders will blow up and abandon the race on the course tomorrow - perhaps as much as a third of the field. I'll be watching George Hincapie closely, as he did very well in the San Gabriel Mtns last year, and but for a lot of guys tail-gunning him over the last 30km, might have finished on the podium. Also a good indicator of how much he's got left for another TDF.

I was a little surprised to see Dave Z's leg come out wide and grab some air going through a turn. That seems a pretty serious form break, but I wasn't on the bike, so maybe a split-second balance thing. In general I've worked very hard to immediately, and reflexively bring my right knee to the bar as soon as I stop pedaling. It makes a big difference in drag on a compact frame, helps control the bike when coming off or transitioning to the aerobars, and protects my knees in tight corners.

I've been wracking my brain to find a good alternative to a Tahoe stage should bad weather become an issue in the future. I think I've hit on one. A 30mi/48km Team TT from Carson City, NV to Alpine Village, Ca. Not only does the 1,500 ft drop in elevation eliminate snow, but the Sierra Mountains protect the eastern desert from rain and winds that can reach close to 100mph over the passes. The mile high altitude will also allow the riders to put their high-altitude training to good use.

Since all of our big winter storms swirl up from the south, the SSE winds will be headwinds for the riders, so the strongest teams, with the best form, will come out on top. It would establish a valid pecking order for the teams and riders for the rest of the tour, and allow riders in difficulty to drop out of the paceline near the end. (teams only need to finish with 5 riders)

Given how close the course is to Tahoe, just over Kingsbury Grade from South Lake Tahoe, this should keep logistics manageable and provide for some sponsor alternatives. I'm going to suggest it to the Amgen people, and hope they'll give it serious consideration.

Looking forward to tomorrow's massive Queen Stage, and expect Radio Shack will let Garmin do a lot of the work early, as Garmin has 3 guys near the top in the GC.

2011 Amgen Tour - Stage 5

It looks like the early start will have them off under sunny skies, with some big, puffy clouds overhead. The wind is mostly a crosswind that will push them along a bit - very welcome I'm sure for riders with tired legs after yesterday's hard ride.

I don't have personal knowledge of this route, so will be a spectator along with everyone else today. The course looks very flat, except for the final, short climb, so I expect the sprint teams will do well. Thor Hushovd is near the top of the GC, and this stage will suit him well, so I expect he will be near the front a lot.

I'm guessing RadioShack will be happy to have other teams do the work at the front today, until the final KOM climb, and then they'll be in front protecting Horner and Leipheimer's 1, 2 GC positions. The scenery should be spectacular, and ride generally a fast, easy one.

Overall, today will be about recovery before the TT in Solvang, and the massive Queen Stage in the San Gabriel Mountains. I expect the minor teams will want to break away to get in the spotlight, but will get reeled in handily 10-15km before the final KOM, and dropped decisively there to keep the climbing teams' big gains yesterday intact.

2011 Amgen Tour - Stage 4

They've pushed the start time back from 10:15 to 11:45, and should therefore be starting under sunny skies and on dry-ish roads after a thorough soaking rain last night. Winds are from the W and SW at around 10mph today, and generally crosswinds for the long stretch heading south on Mines Rd and San Antonio Rd.

I covered the main climb on this stage in some detail here, so will not elaborate further, except to say Mt Hamilton is a bitch of a climb with horrible, asphalt washboard road that will have your Garmin reporting grades for 14,16 and up to 24% right at the top. Temps will be mid-50s at the top of Hamilton, and its eastern face will be sunny, protected from the wind, and fairly warm.

Expect to see a lot of clothing being stripped off on the long descent to the base of Hamilton from the junction of San Antonio Rd and Del Puerto Canyon Rd, which took the riders into Patterson last year after their climb up Mines Rd.

This is THE stage to sort out the overall standings in Northern California. Piety Monday's stage wasn't run in reverse, which would have made it an epic uphill battle, but yesterday's stage into a fierce headwind all day turned out to be a worthy test, so fatigue will be a factor today.

Great times for European sports fans, as I watched Dirk Nowitzki play the closest thing to a perfect basketball game I've seen in almost 30 years. Really, and truly a fantastic, perhaps once in a lifetime performance.

I kind of enjoyed the poor-man's live blogging from the comments section below yesterday, so think I'll get me a big cup of coffee and have another go at that in a few minutes.

Post Script: An emotional day for Andy Schleck, as his teammate  Wouter Weylandt  was laid to rest in Belgium today. 2,000 friends, family and fans paid their respects. Schleck was reportedly in tears at the start. A fitting tribute to  life cut tragically short. 

Congratulations to Chris Horner, and Levi Leipheimer, who now hold 1st and 2nd place in the general category. They worked their butts off, as did all of the RadioShack squad, so deserved it. Rumor was Lance Armstrong was in the crowd watching.. 

Stage 8 - No Tomorrow

"Saint" Lance's gritty, iron, determination shows

For those race fans asleep under a rock on another planet, welcome back, and let me tell you, the story of the 2009 ATOC was the absolute iron grip Astana had on the race from Stage 2's Bonne Doon road break-away by Levi Leipheimer onward. That effort by Leipheimer and Popovych cemented their control over the race for all of the remaining stages. The only time that was in jeopardy was in the Solvang Time Trial, and Levi used that to put the nail in the coffin of any other rider's aspirations for a winning the overall CG.

Rewinding a day to Stage 7, I have to say I was amazed at how easy these riders made Stage 7's climb up to 5,000 ft seem. They have some serious power in those legs and they can keep putting it down for an hour or more if the climb requires it. Btw, I have a nice bike calculator I found online which calculates power from speed and vis-versa. Based on the calculator, when Cavendish hit 51mph, out-sprinting both Hincapie and Thor Hushovd, he was generating 2,292 watts! Mark's got quite an engine there. :D (I've found this calculator to be pretty accurate, and used it extensively to inform my choice of 46/38/24 gearing)

I was, of course, very sorry to see Francisco Mancebo hit a rock and crash out of the race. I was going to mention sand on the road as a factor in the race after the rains, but rocks are an equal hazard in the San Gabriels. They aren't as decomposed as the rock in the Marin Headlands at the north end of the Golden Gate bridge, which will crumble into a mini avalanche of rock if you simply kick it with a good hiking boot, but that sandstone is pretty hazardous on the road right after a rain. I have to think Mancebo would have challenged Team Astana on the Cole Grade climb and changed the complexion of the race.

As it was there were a lot of tired legs, and a handful of notable names dropped out of the race from fatigue and futility. This may well have been Lance's best day too, as he crushed any hope of a run at Team Astana with the savage pace he led the Peleton with on the Cole Grade climb. Nobody had the legs to attempt a breakout off the front of the Peleton, and the Peleton had already been shattered into 2 or more pieces by the pace of the first long climb up to Mt Palomar.

On the descent from Palomar I saw the first really talented descender of the race - Vincenzo Nibali. He was smooth through his line, his positioning on the bike - whether sitting up, tucked over the drops, or chest on his hands resting on the tops of his bars - was well chosen for the tightness of the turns, grade, and speed. His transitions from these positions were well-anticipated and smooth - never rushed or twitchy.

Above all though, the one thing that made his skill obvious was the way he stuck his inside knee out into the wind to pull himself through turns. This not only moves your center of gravity well inside the line of the turn, but by plowing through the wind 18" from the centerline of the bike, it's like an inside air-brake that sucks you through the turn. It's something you see all the time from motorcyclists, but not nearly often enough from bicyclists. This small addition to technique can save your life if you take a bad line through a turn and need every last advantage to get you through it. The small amount of extra drag is usually more than offset by your ability to carry extra speed into the turn.

(To kill a lot of speed quickly if approaching a turn too fast, sit up, stick both knees and elbows out in a figure 8, and brake lightly over the front of the hoods with both brakes - then tuck all but the inside knee in and get low in the drops, putting your outside foot all the way down, thigh pressing lightly against the top tube to prevent wheel shimmy. Resume the same "dirty" aero position to kill more speed, once through the turn, if necessary.)

Descending down from Mt Lassen on a tour, loaded with 50lbs in my panniers, I was horrified to watch as my front brake pads began to melt, liquefy and pour off the back of the brake while I plummeted down an 8% grade into a hairpin turn. These techniques and a divine wind of about 80mph right at the turn are all that saved me. I ended up stopped about 3 inches from a solid stone barrier and a 1,500ft sheer drop. The next day in Quincy I bought a pair of Scott Mauthauser high temp brake pads and never used black rubber pads on that bike again. The magic ingredient in those pads? Iron oxide. Kool-Stop bought the patent on them years ago, so now most of us ride them. I don't know who was more shook up, me or my wife at the time, who was a quarter mile behind watching in horror as I careened toward a certain death. More so than in most things, in biking, small things matter a lot.

Stage 8 was all it was cracked up to be, a long steep climb followed by a short very steep climb. The Mt Hamilton climb from Stage 3 in 2008 is shorter than Mt Palomar, but is at least as steep as Cole Grade. Mt Hamilton done from the Patterson side also comes after an 8-10% grade from Franke Raines Regional Park to the little town of San Antonio. The descent down San Antonio Rd to the base of the Mt Hamilton climb is a great relief, and a lot of fun - until you realize you are going go have to climb back every last foot of that descent to get up to Mt Hamilton. Both Cole Grade and Mt Hamilton are rated "hors catagorie" - beyond categorization. Mt Hamilton averages about 9% with pitches up to 25% grade. You can ride it as the Lick Observatory ride in the Canyon Classic if you like a challenge. I'll be there.

Aside from the dominance of Astana and Leipheimer, the other standout was the crowd. Reported to be at 2 million for the race overall, it beat my estimate of 1 million handily. On the all-important Stage 2 day I couldn't get into the Tour Tracker as it was maxed out at 100,000 viewers. I hope the race organizers will offer a DVD of the entire ride with some of the interviews and other coverage that didn't make it into the Tour Tracker environment.

I have been Googling around to try to find out what the total race attendance is for the Giro d'Italia, but I have to think the Amgen Tour of California is now nipping at the Giro's heels in terms of fan participation, and increasingly, in importance for professional teams and their sponsors. I wish for all the riders, especially those who crashed, a speedy recovery and quick return to racing. Thank you Amgen for the many lives you've saved, and for sponsoring a fabulous event and a fantastic spectacle.



PS: My sympathies to my Blogspot friend Rachael on losing her friend Dean. May his after-life be as fruitful and rewarding as this one.

Tour of California - Stage 5 "Predictions"

If you took note of the time stamp on this post you know the only reason this is a prediction is because I'm depriving myself of watching the race until I get this post done. Life does get in the way of fun from time to time. I HATE it when that happens! :D

Today's race course is flat as a pancake. It is also not very scenic, so expect lots of helicopter shots of the gorgeous, snow-capped Sierra Mountains in the background until the very worn down coastal range near Pasa Robles offers some relief from what are the very northern edges of a huge salt marsh just to the south of today's route - the last remnants of the lake that the San Joaquin Valley once was.

When riding the flats, power and speed are king, regardless of body weight. If you ride with clubs like the Stockton Wheelmen they have some big powerful riders that are over 250 lbs. These are 6'+ big hunks of men who would get dropped in mountain stages like yesterday's, but can plow through mile after mile of flats, staring down brutal headwinds (not a factor in today's ride) and pull long lines of smaller riders behind them. The name that comes to mind here is Tom Boonen, and maybe, Popovych for Astana, who is normally a role-player.

After Mancebo's sacrifice to drop back into the Peleton to avoid having his teammates run down by Team Astana and the Levi-Lance machine - who are doing a brilliant job of absolutely dictating the behavior of the Peleton - he will be demanding to be let loose on the world today, and I sure can't blame him. I have to say, as a spectator, Mancebo has done more to make this Tour interesting than any other rider - by FAR. He also appears to have energized and even improved the entire Rock Racing Team. The guy has the most awesome "no guts, no glory", "double or nothing", "damned the torpedoes, full speed ahead" attitude we've seen an a long time. The audacity of hope meets tenacity and strength.

I have to think Floyd Landis will be going for broke about now too. As I sat quietly composing this post in my head, my beloved Jimi Hendrix rendition of "All Along The Watchtower" was floating through some dusty corner of my mind - though I think Dave Mason's version was the most beautiful. The passage "two riders were approaching, and the wind began to howl" and "the hour is getting late" were ringing with special fervor. Today is Stage 5. The race will be more than half over at the end of the day. For guys who had hopes of doing well that have been dashed, today is a day they should stare themselves down in the mirror and risk it all. Time is no more for these guys.

Mark Cavendish is another name that comes to mind. His win yesterday was redemption he obviously wanted badly. I have to think his team got a thorough dressing down after the debacle at the end of Stage 3, and they've responded beautifully, though Hincapie was noticeable by his absence at the celebrations at the finish line yesterday. I think Cavendish will not want to settle for that, but looked to me to be energized by his win yesterday. Whether as an individual contributor, or as a role-player getting Cavendish into position today, George Hincapie could well be looking for some redemption of his own after being shunned by Cavendish at the finish-line yesterday. If Hincapie goes early with a breakaway group, and Cavendish joins late in the race, these two themes will flow together.

Special kudo's btw to Cavendish for being a good sport and donning the cowboy hat during the closing ceremony. Those people worked very hard to put on a great finish, fighting tight city budgets I'm sure, so Levi, take a cue from Mark and learn to be a better emissary for the sport. Mark's boyish grin and good-natured play to the crowd was immediately endearing - in stark contrast to his ruthless race persona - as is often the case with true champions.

So where does this leave us? I think a large group of very talented riders will be attacking viciously early, and as that breakaway group begins to stay out there and become a threat, it will grow as other riders will risk bridging up to them until most of the strong riders will be in the front. Where will Lance and Levi be? I think, despite my focus on individual riders above, the real story SHOULD be Team Astana putting on a real display of power and mastery today, and firmly taking control of the race. They were not pushed very hard yesterday, and should be pretty well rested today relative to the other strong teams in the Tour. It would be a strategic blunder for Astana not to take control today.

My prediction is that Astana, at some point, perhaps on the shallow climb up the Coastal Range, will bridge up into the strong breakaway group after setting a ferocious pace for the Peleton to keep the time gap low, gather themselves in the breakaway group, and then put on a display of power by breaking out as an intact team to decisively take over the race. Columbia Highroad and Team Cervelo' will likely contest vigorously, but I don't think they have the guns to stay with Astana. Expect Popovych to play a key role today for Astana.

Will any of this play out? Who knows? As they say, that's why they run races - to find out. Enjoy the race. Time for me to hit the road myself.

Tour of California - Stage 4 Predictions

The weather today is gorgeous, sunny, light and variable winds and temps into the low 60's. The terrain is very mountainous with flats on both ends. This is a day for climbers, so I expect Mancebo will once again be at the front of the race - provided Rock Racing has a team to put him in a position to win those 5, count'em, 5 KOM climbs on today's stage. That cold, thick air gives you tons of cardio, but that allows you to push your musculature to the limit, and all the riders at the front, and especially the sprinters, really got wrung out yesterday. (you can feel the extra drag on your body in cold air - it's noticeable)

Lance and Levi are tired and beat up, Astana having done most of the work into that brutal wind yesterday, and both men have crashed now. Levi's lead is down to 30-40 seconds on about 5 riders, so I expect Levi to give up the CG lead after making other teams work hard to take it from him, pulling he and Lance along in the process. If Team Astana can hang onto the yellow jersey today it will be a huge coup.

I expect the Columbia High Road team with Hincapie and Cavendish to make a hard run at Astana today. Cavendish needs some redemption today after blowing it at the finish line yesterday, and Hincapie is likely to feel like doing a bit of free-lancing today after his efforts to put Cavendish in a position to win the sprint at the finish were wasted.

While this will be the climbers day tactically, strategically, this is a day where it's all up for grabs. With Astana being so dominant, but now very tired from all the time spent pulling the peleton through the heavy winds yesterday, this is a day when 4-5 teams have chance to put on a strong performance and grab the stage win, and SaxoBank and Columbia have a chance to take the CG lead from Levi and Lance. Props, btw, to Popovych on the Astana team for doing most of the yeoman's work out front yesterday, saving Lance and Levi and all the wheel-sucking wanna-Bs just trying to hang on. I'm sure a lot of riders stumbled into bed and collapsed last night, and the massage tables will all have waiting lines this morning.

For us spectators, this should be a spectacular day of breath-taking vistas, exciting climbs, lots of team tactics and strategy playing out, and the stronger teams trying to reel in the climbers at the end. If Levi still has the legs, he might surprise us all and pull off a stage win, or at least, hang onto the yellow jersey. I'm hoping for a fast race, because I need to get out and have a fast ride of my own before dark, and before the rain sets in again tomorrow. Enjoy!!!