Lance behind by a Swiss Second

Team Astana put on an incredible performance today in a team time-trial event, winning Stage 4, and leaving Lance Armstrong just milliseconds behind Fabian Cancellara. More impressive still is the overall standing of Team Astana, with riders in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th place, they OWN the field. Beyond that, they put 2-3 minutes of time on the big threats in the race.

Tomorrow will be hot, windy and flat, and should favor strong team riding, so there's a good chance Lance will take the yellow jersey tomorrow. I want to watch the Verses coverage before commenting further on today's event, but wanted to share this thrilling result.

UPDATE: Not much to watch on a team time-trial, but watching team after team make errors and outright blunders, I feel compelled to say that winning in many, many things is about attending to many, many small details. It is a rare human endeavor where a good field of competition has not already found all of the larger elements of success, leaving only a blizzard of little details left to you to exploit on your way to victory.

Perfectionism, far from being a disease, as our current cultural ebb insists, is the mark of someone who knows their business. It has always been so, and always will be so. Only a fool thinks otherwise. It isn't a substitute for leadership skills, or a great attitude, but it is very necessary to succeed in any contest. One can only hope that Trunk's pilot, surgeon or electrician has taken her advice to heart so we will soon be rid of this cultural siren of mediocrity.

Getting Respect Sir Lance's Way

Sir Lance being congratulated by Mark Cavendish, the stage winner

Watching the Tour de'France coverage with a friend, I excused myself for a minute to use the bathroom. The talking heads on Verses were repeating my comment of a few minutes earlier that the Peleton was getting really stretched out. It seemed to me a large break-away group was over-due to make dash off the front.

I had been able to make out some of the advice Hincapie got from his team car 5 minutes earlier, and then the announcers began wondering aloud why Lance was being such a work-horse for his team, pulling hard at the front of the Peleton. All of that info said one thing - break-away, and in numbers. The ideal situation for a break-away in heavy winds is to sprint through a cross-wind, and then turn as a tight group into a howling headwind. It makes bridging up from the front of the Peleton nearly impossible.

Upon returning a couple of minutes later the announcers were going on about nothing again, when I happened to notice a bend in the road, and an echelon staring to form, with a lot of yellow jerseys in the gutter to the right. As I was yelling at my friend that a break-away was imminent, it happened. As Armstrong said later when interviewed, "it doesn't take a genius", but Contador, brought in by Astana to replace Lance as the team leader, sure didn't see it, and is now 19 seconds behind Armstrong in 4th place. Lance and Popovych and one other Astana rider went with the break-away group, and the rest got left behind for good.

A break-away group of 27, with one entire, in-tact team like Columbia High-Road defending yesterday's win, is not going to be reeled in. That's enough power to drop the entire Peleton, and they did just that. I was grinning from ear to ear. Lance may be old and past his prime, but he's savagely brilliant in managing a race, and when he calls for a favor or starts directing traffic, people listen and obey. He was just absolutely masterful, and got heartfelt hugs from Hincapie, Cavendish and the entire Colombia team at the finish line.

His move from 10th to 3rd place in the race was just brilliant. It was thrilling to see him barking orders and organizing competing interests into a solid and sustained break-away effort. Pop, just like in the Amgen Tour, was right there, helping him in any way he could. I am also very curious to know, and sure it will not be known for some time, if ever, if George Hincapie, an old friend of Lance's, tipped him off to Colombia High-Road's intentions, as it was George who was getting the coaching orders from the THR team car.

I got the definite sense watching the break-away group working together, that many of the riders felt that Lance's removal as the Astana team's leader was insulting and shabby for a man who has dominated the TDF and been a brilliant ambassador for the sport. In cycling, as in many sports, there are many, many unspoken rules and traditions. Coaches and team owners have little influence over these elaborate rituals, and I think Team Astana's owners got a very frank and brutal reputiation today from the moral leadership in the sport of cycling.

I have to say, it was a very satisfying to watch this act of defiance play out, and I salute the senior statesmen of the sport for honoring Lance Armstrong for all he has done for the sport, and the many, many contributions he has made to teams and individual riders alike. I was also very impressed that the very young Cavendish seems to get the unspoken rules of cycling. I commented on his gracious behavior here when commenting on the Amgen Tour of California, and he seems to be maturing into a gracious winner, team player, and keeper of the sport's standards. For this he gets my picture vote for this post, celebrating with Lance after the finish.

If you missed today's stage, I hope you will get a chance to watch it soon. It was a real thing of beauty - and justice. Cycling is truly blessed to have such a magnificent spokesman. God's Speed Lance. On behalf of millions and millions, I wish the very best for you, and will cheer you on to victory with the utmost admiration.

Stage 8 - No Tomorrow

"Saint" Lance's gritty, iron, determination shows

For those race fans asleep under a rock on another planet, welcome back, and let me tell you, the story of the 2009 ATOC was the absolute iron grip Astana had on the race from Stage 2's Bonne Doon road break-away by Levi Leipheimer onward. That effort by Leipheimer and Popovych cemented their control over the race for all of the remaining stages. The only time that was in jeopardy was in the Solvang Time Trial, and Levi used that to put the nail in the coffin of any other rider's aspirations for a winning the overall CG.

Rewinding a day to Stage 7, I have to say I was amazed at how easy these riders made Stage 7's climb up to 5,000 ft seem. They have some serious power in those legs and they can keep putting it down for an hour or more if the climb requires it. Btw, I have a nice bike calculator I found online which calculates power from speed and vis-versa. Based on the calculator, when Cavendish hit 51mph, out-sprinting both Hincapie and Thor Hushovd, he was generating 2,292 watts! Mark's got quite an engine there. :D (I've found this calculator to be pretty accurate, and used it extensively to inform my choice of 46/38/24 gearing)

I was, of course, very sorry to see Francisco Mancebo hit a rock and crash out of the race. I was going to mention sand on the road as a factor in the race after the rains, but rocks are an equal hazard in the San Gabriels. They aren't as decomposed as the rock in the Marin Headlands at the north end of the Golden Gate bridge, which will crumble into a mini avalanche of rock if you simply kick it with a good hiking boot, but that sandstone is pretty hazardous on the road right after a rain. I have to think Mancebo would have challenged Team Astana on the Cole Grade climb and changed the complexion of the race.

As it was there were a lot of tired legs, and a handful of notable names dropped out of the race from fatigue and futility. This may well have been Lance's best day too, as he crushed any hope of a run at Team Astana with the savage pace he led the Peleton with on the Cole Grade climb. Nobody had the legs to attempt a breakout off the front of the Peleton, and the Peleton had already been shattered into 2 or more pieces by the pace of the first long climb up to Mt Palomar.

On the descent from Palomar I saw the first really talented descender of the race - Vincenzo Nibali. He was smooth through his line, his positioning on the bike - whether sitting up, tucked over the drops, or chest on his hands resting on the tops of his bars - was well chosen for the tightness of the turns, grade, and speed. His transitions from these positions were well-anticipated and smooth - never rushed or twitchy.

Above all though, the one thing that made his skill obvious was the way he stuck his inside knee out into the wind to pull himself through turns. This not only moves your center of gravity well inside the line of the turn, but by plowing through the wind 18" from the centerline of the bike, it's like an inside air-brake that sucks you through the turn. It's something you see all the time from motorcyclists, but not nearly often enough from bicyclists. This small addition to technique can save your life if you take a bad line through a turn and need every last advantage to get you through it. The small amount of extra drag is usually more than offset by your ability to carry extra speed into the turn.

(To kill a lot of speed quickly if approaching a turn too fast, sit up, stick both knees and elbows out in a figure 8, and brake lightly over the front of the hoods with both brakes - then tuck all but the inside knee in and get low in the drops, putting your outside foot all the way down, thigh pressing lightly against the top tube to prevent wheel shimmy. Resume the same "dirty" aero position to kill more speed, once through the turn, if necessary.)

Descending down from Mt Lassen on a tour, loaded with 50lbs in my panniers, I was horrified to watch as my front brake pads began to melt, liquefy and pour off the back of the brake while I plummeted down an 8% grade into a hairpin turn. These techniques and a divine wind of about 80mph right at the turn are all that saved me. I ended up stopped about 3 inches from a solid stone barrier and a 1,500ft sheer drop. The next day in Quincy I bought a pair of Scott Mauthauser high temp brake pads and never used black rubber pads on that bike again. The magic ingredient in those pads? Iron oxide. Kool-Stop bought the patent on them years ago, so now most of us ride them. I don't know who was more shook up, me or my wife at the time, who was a quarter mile behind watching in horror as I careened toward a certain death. More so than in most things, in biking, small things matter a lot.

Stage 8 was all it was cracked up to be, a long steep climb followed by a short very steep climb. The Mt Hamilton climb from Stage 3 in 2008 is shorter than Mt Palomar, but is at least as steep as Cole Grade. Mt Hamilton done from the Patterson side also comes after an 8-10% grade from Franke Raines Regional Park to the little town of San Antonio. The descent down San Antonio Rd to the base of the Mt Hamilton climb is a great relief, and a lot of fun - until you realize you are going go have to climb back every last foot of that descent to get up to Mt Hamilton. Both Cole Grade and Mt Hamilton are rated "hors catagorie" - beyond categorization. Mt Hamilton averages about 9% with pitches up to 25% grade. You can ride it as the Lick Observatory ride in the Canyon Classic if you like a challenge. I'll be there.

Aside from the dominance of Astana and Leipheimer, the other standout was the crowd. Reported to be at 2 million for the race overall, it beat my estimate of 1 million handily. On the all-important Stage 2 day I couldn't get into the Tour Tracker as it was maxed out at 100,000 viewers. I hope the race organizers will offer a DVD of the entire ride with some of the interviews and other coverage that didn't make it into the Tour Tracker environment.

I have been Googling around to try to find out what the total race attendance is for the Giro d'Italia, but I have to think the Amgen Tour of California is now nipping at the Giro's heels in terms of fan participation, and increasingly, in importance for professional teams and their sponsors. I wish for all the riders, especially those who crashed, a speedy recovery and quick return to racing. Thank you Amgen for the many lives you've saved, and for sponsoring a fabulous event and a fantastic spectacle.



PS: My sympathies to my Blogspot friend Rachael on losing her friend Dean. May his after-life be as fruitful and rewarding as this one.

Tour of California - Stage 5 "Predictions"

If you took note of the time stamp on this post you know the only reason this is a prediction is because I'm depriving myself of watching the race until I get this post done. Life does get in the way of fun from time to time. I HATE it when that happens! :D

Today's race course is flat as a pancake. It is also not very scenic, so expect lots of helicopter shots of the gorgeous, snow-capped Sierra Mountains in the background until the very worn down coastal range near Pasa Robles offers some relief from what are the very northern edges of a huge salt marsh just to the south of today's route - the last remnants of the lake that the San Joaquin Valley once was.

When riding the flats, power and speed are king, regardless of body weight. If you ride with clubs like the Stockton Wheelmen they have some big powerful riders that are over 250 lbs. These are 6'+ big hunks of men who would get dropped in mountain stages like yesterday's, but can plow through mile after mile of flats, staring down brutal headwinds (not a factor in today's ride) and pull long lines of smaller riders behind them. The name that comes to mind here is Tom Boonen, and maybe, Popovych for Astana, who is normally a role-player.

After Mancebo's sacrifice to drop back into the Peleton to avoid having his teammates run down by Team Astana and the Levi-Lance machine - who are doing a brilliant job of absolutely dictating the behavior of the Peleton - he will be demanding to be let loose on the world today, and I sure can't blame him. I have to say, as a spectator, Mancebo has done more to make this Tour interesting than any other rider - by FAR. He also appears to have energized and even improved the entire Rock Racing Team. The guy has the most awesome "no guts, no glory", "double or nothing", "damned the torpedoes, full speed ahead" attitude we've seen an a long time. The audacity of hope meets tenacity and strength.

I have to think Floyd Landis will be going for broke about now too. As I sat quietly composing this post in my head, my beloved Jimi Hendrix rendition of "All Along The Watchtower" was floating through some dusty corner of my mind - though I think Dave Mason's version was the most beautiful. The passage "two riders were approaching, and the wind began to howl" and "the hour is getting late" were ringing with special fervor. Today is Stage 5. The race will be more than half over at the end of the day. For guys who had hopes of doing well that have been dashed, today is a day they should stare themselves down in the mirror and risk it all. Time is no more for these guys.

Mark Cavendish is another name that comes to mind. His win yesterday was redemption he obviously wanted badly. I have to think his team got a thorough dressing down after the debacle at the end of Stage 3, and they've responded beautifully, though Hincapie was noticeable by his absence at the celebrations at the finish line yesterday. I think Cavendish will not want to settle for that, but looked to me to be energized by his win yesterday. Whether as an individual contributor, or as a role-player getting Cavendish into position today, George Hincapie could well be looking for some redemption of his own after being shunned by Cavendish at the finish-line yesterday. If Hincapie goes early with a breakaway group, and Cavendish joins late in the race, these two themes will flow together.

Special kudo's btw to Cavendish for being a good sport and donning the cowboy hat during the closing ceremony. Those people worked very hard to put on a great finish, fighting tight city budgets I'm sure, so Levi, take a cue from Mark and learn to be a better emissary for the sport. Mark's boyish grin and good-natured play to the crowd was immediately endearing - in stark contrast to his ruthless race persona - as is often the case with true champions.

So where does this leave us? I think a large group of very talented riders will be attacking viciously early, and as that breakaway group begins to stay out there and become a threat, it will grow as other riders will risk bridging up to them until most of the strong riders will be in the front. Where will Lance and Levi be? I think, despite my focus on individual riders above, the real story SHOULD be Team Astana putting on a real display of power and mastery today, and firmly taking control of the race. They were not pushed very hard yesterday, and should be pretty well rested today relative to the other strong teams in the Tour. It would be a strategic blunder for Astana not to take control today.

My prediction is that Astana, at some point, perhaps on the shallow climb up the Coastal Range, will bridge up into the strong breakaway group after setting a ferocious pace for the Peleton to keep the time gap low, gather themselves in the breakaway group, and then put on a display of power by breaking out as an intact team to decisively take over the race. Columbia Highroad and Team Cervelo' will likely contest vigorously, but I don't think they have the guns to stay with Astana. Expect Popovych to play a key role today for Astana.

Will any of this play out? Who knows? As they say, that's why they run races - to find out. Enjoy the race. Time for me to hit the road myself.

Tour of California - Stage 4 Predictions

The weather today is gorgeous, sunny, light and variable winds and temps into the low 60's. The terrain is very mountainous with flats on both ends. This is a day for climbers, so I expect Mancebo will once again be at the front of the race - provided Rock Racing has a team to put him in a position to win those 5, count'em, 5 KOM climbs on today's stage. That cold, thick air gives you tons of cardio, but that allows you to push your musculature to the limit, and all the riders at the front, and especially the sprinters, really got wrung out yesterday. (you can feel the extra drag on your body in cold air - it's noticeable)

Lance and Levi are tired and beat up, Astana having done most of the work into that brutal wind yesterday, and both men have crashed now. Levi's lead is down to 30-40 seconds on about 5 riders, so I expect Levi to give up the CG lead after making other teams work hard to take it from him, pulling he and Lance along in the process. If Team Astana can hang onto the yellow jersey today it will be a huge coup.

I expect the Columbia High Road team with Hincapie and Cavendish to make a hard run at Astana today. Cavendish needs some redemption today after blowing it at the finish line yesterday, and Hincapie is likely to feel like doing a bit of free-lancing today after his efforts to put Cavendish in a position to win the sprint at the finish were wasted.

While this will be the climbers day tactically, strategically, this is a day where it's all up for grabs. With Astana being so dominant, but now very tired from all the time spent pulling the peleton through the heavy winds yesterday, this is a day when 4-5 teams have chance to put on a strong performance and grab the stage win, and SaxoBank and Columbia have a chance to take the CG lead from Levi and Lance. Props, btw, to Popovych on the Astana team for doing most of the yeoman's work out front yesterday, saving Lance and Levi and all the wheel-sucking wanna-Bs just trying to hang on. I'm sure a lot of riders stumbled into bed and collapsed last night, and the massage tables will all have waiting lines this morning.

For us spectators, this should be a spectacular day of breath-taking vistas, exciting climbs, lots of team tactics and strategy playing out, and the stronger teams trying to reel in the climbers at the end. If Levi still has the legs, he might surprise us all and pull off a stage win, or at least, hang onto the yellow jersey. I'm hoping for a fast race, because I need to get out and have a fast ride of my own before dark, and before the rain sets in again tomorrow. Enjoy!!!

Predictions for Stage 3 of the Tour of California

Here's some tasty footage from VeloNews. I do think they are overestimating the chances of individual riders in Stage 3 though. The climb comes too early to be decisive, and is not nearly the test that last year's Mt Hamilton climb was. I'm betting the best teams will be able to recover on the long flat stretch that makes up the last 50 miles of this stage.

How flat? Some of these areas are flood irrigated, and for that to work there has to be less than 4" of rise in a mile! Winds will play a more important role, and they will be all headwinds tomorrow, although not very strong once over the hump and into the San Joaquin Valley. This stage should favor Astana, which is dominating with riders in 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th places.