2011 Amgen Tour - Tahoe Stage

 This just in from the Amgen organizers.

Due to severe and unsafe weather conditions in the Lake Tahoe area, the start of Stage 1 of the 2011 Amgen Tour of California has been delayed.

If the weather improves, a shortened stage will be started at 1:15 p.m. PT. We will continue to monitor the weather conditions and state of the roads and make a final decision at noon PT, with the riders’ safety as our number one priority.

The new route will continue to take the riders from South Lake Tahoe to North Star up the west side of Lake Tahoe. The stage will be approximately 50 miles. There will be no changes to the timing or the finish line at North Star. The Lifestyle Festival at North Star will open at noon PT as scheduled with the Amgen Breakaway Mile also remaining on-schedule for 2:30 p.m. PT

This is really hard to understand. For 2 hrs of riding, where nothing will be decided, the riders have to brave freezing (literally, when considering wind chill) conditions, with possible black icing on the Emerald Bay descent? There's 3-6" of snow on the ground in Tahoe, with temps still dropping. Total lunacy running this stage today, especially after Wouter Weylandt's fatal crash in the Giro.

I thought the obvious solution was to run stage #3 today, and do the Tahoe stage on Thursday when it warms up. In essence, shuffle the order of the stages as follows.

• Stage 3 today - forecast highs in low 60s with some rain
• Stage 2 Monday (start in Tahoe basin)
• Stage 4 Tuesday - forecast highs in low 60s with some rain
• Stage 5 Wednesday - high 50s with a 20mph cross and  tailwind off the Pacific to rest tired legs
• Stage 1 in Tahoe Thursday in sunny, 55 degree temps

It's light out until 8:00pm, so just start the stages at noon when rain is forecast to let the air warm up a little and let the riders enjoy the cold on Stage #4 when they will be climbing. Delaying a decision until this morning made any new arrangement of stages impossible. Better yet, since they've had a week to work on a contingency plan, why not hold a TT in San Diego today under sunny skies and 65 degree temps, run stages 6, 7, and 8, and then come back to Northern California?

It's a good thing our generals don't suck this bad at decision-making. A week for contingency planning, and this is what they're going with? Thunderously stupid!!!
.

2011 Amgen Tour of California - Weather Report

Gulp! Uhhh, looks like the Amgen Tour of California's 10:30 AM kickoff will be in 37F temps with a 15mph wind up in Lake Tahoe this Sunday. So much for a heat concern - at least early in the race. It looks like a major storm front is moving in, so bring your winter gear. Some cold weather clothing RXs here.

In thin air, this is going to make for a very cold start. I think the key to this stage is to stay out of trouble. The roads are generally very good around Tahoe, but the wind off the lake will be brutal in places. The wind and the cold will both favor larger, heavier riders with more power and core.

The team strong men are going to be doing a lot of work on Sunday, and you may see a win by one, as the course isn't very steep. Thor Hushovd would be a good bet. Of course, I'd love to see Hincapie steal the first stage, but that'd be a real long-shot.

For the most part, the wind will either be in your face or at your back, but it is an oval course, so there should be some echelon riding, and opportunities for good tactics when turning from crosswind to headwind.  Good Luck!

PS: As of 5:00AM PDT Saturday, May14th, 2011, the following weather alert was issued for Sunday, May 15th, 2011.
Windy. Snow during the morning will transition to snow showers during the afternoon. High 38F. Winds SW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Winds could occasionally gust to over 40 mph.